Following this dramatic downfall of Bashar Al-Assad.. he transformed from the leader of the Hay’at Tahrir
Al-Sham (HTS), designated a terrorist organization, to the head of military operations in
Syria, and then to the leader of the new Syrian administration.
by dr Nidal Shoukeir*
Ten swift days have passed since the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad, who
inherited power on a silver platter on July 17, 2000, following the death of his father,
another dictator, Hafez Al-Assad. For over 24 years, Bashar ruled Syria with an iron fist,
leaving behind a legacy of crimes and violations that affected not only the Syrian people
but also extended to neighboring Lebanon.
It is no surprise that Assad’s downfall was met with widespread relief both domestically
and internationally. His regime, infamous for its dark history of repression and atrocities,
left behind neither regret nor sympathy. Instead, voices united to bid farewell to his era,
relegating it to the broadest gates of the dustbin of history.
Milestones in the Early Days of the New Syria
Examining the events that marked these first days of Syria’s rebirth, three key points
stand out:
The Positive Shock of the Regime’s Fall
Despite numerous signs pointing to the regime’s imminent collapse, many Syrians,
especially those within the country, could not believe that such an oppressive system
could actually fall. Even after its downfall on the morning of December 8, Syrians
experienced an emotional shock, struggling to believe they were finally freed from a
nightmare that had lasted for decades.
A Sudden and Unexpected Collapse
The speed with which the regime crumbled stunned the world. How could a regular
army, backed externally and equipped with significant resources, disintegrate in mere
days with little to no resistance? Syrians and the world alike discovered that the regime
was nothing more than a “paper tiger” that had deceived them for years.
Assad’s Flight and Unknown Fate
In the early hours of December 8, Bashar Al-Assad suddenly vanished from Damascus.
It was later revealed that he fled to Moscow, abandoning even his closest allies to face
their fate. This cowardly escape provoked widespread condemnation, even from his
traditional allies, who denounced him in the harshest terms.
The Rise of Ahmad Al-Sharaa (Al-Joulani)
Following this dramatic downfall of Bashar Al-Assad, Syria witnessed the meteoric rise
of Ahmad Hussein Al-Sharaa, known as “Abu Mohammad Al-Joulani,” as a central figure
in the new Syrian scene. Overnight, he transformed from the leader of the Hay’at Tahrir
Al-Sham (HTS), designated a terrorist organization, to the head of military operations in
Syria, and then to the leader of the new Syrian administration.
In the early days after the regime’s fall, neither Syrians nor the international community
paid much attention to this sudden transition, as the joy of ridding themselves of Assad
overshadowed any concerns or questions. But as time passed, it became evident to all
that the new Syria had come under the rule of a controversial figure, raising serious
questions about the country’s future.
A Dual Personality: Ahmad Al-Sharaa or Abu Mohammad Al-Joulani?
The pressing question today is: who is ruling the new Syria? Is it Ahmad Al-Sharaa,
attempting to portray himself as a moderate political and military figure? Or is it Abu
Mohammad Al-Joulani, the jihadist leader with a history of extremism?
Since arriving in Damascus, Al-Sharaa has taken calculated steps to pragmatically
manage the transitional phase. However, he carries a jihadist past that began in Iraq
under the leadership of Al-Qaeda’s Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi. In January 2012, tasked by
ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, Al-Joulani established a branch of the group in Syria,
known as the Al-Nusra Front. In 2013, he broke away from ISIS to pledge allegiance to
Al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri. By 2016, he announced his separation from Al-
Qaeda and the founding of “Jabhat Fatah Al-Sham,” which later evolved into Hay’at
Tahrir Al-Sham in an attempt to present a more independent image.
An Attempt to Change the Narrative
Since revealing his true identity publicly on December 5, Al-Sharaa has worked
intensively to erase his image as a militant jihadist leader and rebrand himself as a
national figure capable of leading Syria through the next phase.
This effort has been reflected in a clear shift in both his appearance and rhetoric. Just
days before the regime’s fall, Al-Sharaa shed his traditional jihadist attire and donned
military fatigues to appear as a military hero. Following the regime’s collapse and his
arrival in Damascus, he adopted civilian clothing to present himself as a political figure
committed to building a new Syria.
In recent days, Al-Sharaa has increased his media presence, directing reassuring
messages both domestically and internationally.
Domestically, he opened Assad’s prisons, releasing thousands of detainees, and
promised the Syrian people freedom, democracy, and social justice. He vowed to
protect all societal groups, including religious and ethnic minorities such as Alawites,
Christians, Druze, and Kurds.
Internationally, Al-Sharaa sent clear messages to neighboring and Arab countries,
pledging to completely expel Iranian influence from Syria. He also announced his
openness to the West, revealing initial communications with Western embassies to
restore relations. Perhaps most surprising was his outreach to Israel, expressing a
desire for peace and affirming that Syria would not seek renewed conflict. This has led
many to view him as the strongman of Syria’s next phase.
Lingering Questions
Despite the steps Ahmad Al-Sharaa has taken in recent days, questions remain about
his true character. On one hand, some see his recent actions as evidence of political
savvy and an ability to adapt to the demands of the moment. On the other hand,
skeptics remain wary of his jihadist past, fearing that his shift in rhetoric and appearance
is superficial, with no genuine change in his core ideology.
Amid these uncertainties, one major question looms: who truly rules the new Syria? Can
Ahmad Al-Sharaa/Abu Mohammad Al-Joulani transcend his past and become an
accepted national leader? Or will his history haunt him, preventing the establishment of
a democratic Syria?
*Professor of Strategic Communications and Governmental Relations
(Associated Medias) – Tutti i diritti sono riservati