From Washington, authoritative sources reveal to Associated Medias the existence of a confidential agreement between the incumbent president and the former first lady. The pact would provide, in the event of problems, for Barak’s wife to take over in July
by Guido Talarico
Michelle Obama has repeatedly said she will not run for the White House. And publicly this is still the version that dominates. But this is not how things actually stand. Authoritative Democratic sources in Washington, consulted by Associated Medias, say that the pattern is another and tell of a secret pact between Biden and the Obamas. In reality, these sources explain, Michelle will take the field shortly before the summer convention.
There are two reasons for this expectation. The first is to see how outgoing president and fellow party member Joe Biden will fare come July. The latest New York Times polls say he is currently in a comeback over Donald Trump and has almost caught up with him. However, the national and international scenario, one only has to think of the dramatic war situation in Israel and Ukraine, are changing rapidly. Which means that the president could still gain but also lose support.
Then, again on the Biden side, there is the issue of his health, which appears very precarious, and of his own physical fitness. Everyone knows that to go all the way in the presidential race requires a temperament that Joe does not seem to have today.
The second reason that sees Michelle at the window is linked this time to Trump and his judicial affairs that could compromise his race. Not to mention that the Republican candidate himself with his 77 years of age is not much younger than his contender who is 81. In short, Barak Obama’s wife is waiting for the two elderly contenders to clash until the very end and then, at the last minute, if the conditions are right, she could enter the field as fresh as a rose, ready to save the Democrats from the clutches of the Republican tycoon.
But there is more, some of these sources tell us that in the Democratic family the secret agreement between the Obamas (remember that Joe was Barak’s loyal deputy) and Biden comes from afar and is more articulated. The pact, established from the very beginning of the electoral contest, would essentially be this: Biden would play his cards for re-election, with the full support of the Obamas and the party, giving himself until early July 2024. If at that date the polls had given him a clear lead over Trump, if his fitness was compatible to face the final rush, Biden would have had a green light and full support to continue his race. Conversely, should he suffer any further physical pain or lag in the polls, then here is the coupe de theatre with Michelle surprisingly in the field, ready to save the Democrats and the country from the evil Wasp.
The New York Times, in commenting on the latest polls conducted in collaboration with Siena College, writes: “The poll results, getting closer and closer, are the latest test of a contest for 2024 that both campaigns are preparing to be very close. The last two presidential elections were decided by tens of thousands of votes in a handful of swing states, and this one could be just as close. In a nation so evenly divided, even the smallest shift in support could prove decisive’.
So a tight battle, fought by two elderly candidates, both of whom are fragile. Imagine in such a context, balanced and precarious at the same time, how deflagrating and potentially successful Michelle Obama’s candidacy could be. The first woman and at the same time the first black woman to run for president. A trained lawyer, close to the social battles most felt by the American public, and moreover already an expert on how life in the White House works. There is no doubt that her candidacy would have a great impact on the American electorate, which, on one hand and on the other, today thinks it should vote for the least worst.
It is again the New York Times that lends us a hand in this analysis: ‘Over the past month,’ the NYT writes, ‘Mr. Biden’s support among white voters has stagnated, but it has risen among black and Latino voters, though it is still below traditional levels of Democratic support. Mr Biden did better than a month ago in the suburbs and among women, though he was weaker among men. Younger voters remain a persistent weakness, while older voters represent a source of relative strength for the Democratic president’. In short, he lacks blacks, Latinos and young people. Exactly those that Michelle could easily bring in, to which the female vote should naturally be added, which would naturally flow more towards the former first lady.
Added to all this is a technical, constitutional question. Until when can Michelle Obama take over the race from Joe Biden? The issue of ‘when’ also seems, however, to be settled and codified in the secret agreement from the outset. Elaine Kamarck, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a member of the Democratic National Committee, explained in a recent interview that the formal deadline for making a possible change in the candidates’ race is in June or early July, i.e. before the two parties’ conventions, the Republican one, which takes place from 15 to 18 July in Milwaukee, and the Democratic one, which takes place from 19 to 22 August in Chicago.
Of course it would be a different scenario than usual, where any new candidate who wants to enter the race, due to an impediment by the previous candidate, would still have to be nominated at their own convention, the rules of which are different for each party. At the Democratic convention, new candidates need at least 300 delegate signatures to get the nomination. On the Republican side, on the other hand, the rules state that candidates must produce proof of support from a number of delegates from at least five states.
In short, we are facing a new scenario, also in terms of procedures, but one that is legally and technically feasible. And the whole thing clearly tilts in favour of a candidate who has in her character, in her personal history, in her curriculum more ample, more solid and more convincing arguments than the two candidates currently running. That is why this story about the secret agreement between Joe and Michelle, even having the appearance of an indiscretion circulated to test moods and reactions, remains very credible.
(Associated Medias) – All rights reserved